Wednesday, August 29, 2007

When Sales Go Down, Prices Go Up

Only in Marin...

Faithful readers of Thanks for Your Referrals, the occasional newsletter from Next Generation Real Estate, will recall an article from our January, 2007 issue, in which we encouraged nervous properties owners to maintain a long term outlook on their investments. To illustrate that point, we offer newly available data to support a buy-and-hold strategy.

These statistics strongly suggest that major fluctuations in the Marin real estate market have a greater impact on housing units sold than on sales prices. Translation: In "down markets," Marin County home owners simply stop selling, rather than selling for less. The first chart below tracks average Marin County sales price from 1975-2006.



This next chart shows average units sold per year in Marin County over the same period.

We find these two charts highly illustrative. When it come to stocks and bonds, we've often been told that trying to time the market is a fools errand. It appears the same edict applies to Marin County real estate, as well.