Marin Median Home Price Goes Up

Since August, people have been asking us in hushed and hesitant tones, "So how's business going?" And for some reason, no one seemed to believe our answer, "You know things are really going well." So if you won't take our word for it, look at this article from the Marin IJ. We try to stay away from saying that Marin and San Francisco are bullet proof or evergreen markets, but sometimes a headline tells at least some of the story. True, strong sales in the upper end of the market are pulling the median price up. And true, total units sales are down. But for local home owners worried about their investment or for home buyers looking for the deal of a lifetime, the picture couldn't be clearer. The local market is a lot more stable than people want to believe.

Another thing to keep in mind (and something we've harped on before at your favorite real estate blog), there is no one local market. In San Francisco, South Beach can be cool while NOPA is red hot. (This is, in fact, the case.) In Marin, Kentfield sales can be up 63% through November 20th while Novato sales are down 35% over the same stretch. (Also not a hypothetical example.) As always, our local market it more complex than any headline can capture.

Private or Public

Check out this very interesting article from San Francisco Magazine about the world of San Francisco private schools. As a Realtor doing business in both SF and Marin, I can say with some authority that when it comes to buying a home, the "school question" is often as important as any feature of a particular house. And as someone who was raised in Marin and is now raising two kids in SF (not to mention that I went to school in both locations and am married to an admissions director at and SF private school), I can say with equal authority that the primacy of the school question in the minds of home buyers is utterly appropriate and legitimate. Hopefully the article provides some insight for those wrestling with this decision. If so, you might also check out the Marin public school resources in the link list on the right side of the page.

Waving Goodbye to a Local Legend

We're better than two months and 12 posts into your favorite real estate blog. Loyal readers have come to count on this little bit of cyberspace for local, useful, and timely real estate-related information. To date, we have yet to post anything that didn't fall clearly under that stated purview. Today, that's about to change. We promise not to go off topic very often, but we know loyal readers will forgive the rare self-indulgence.

Charlie Deal died last week. Charlie was a fixture in Mill Valley throughout my childhood; a singularly recognizable figure. A quirky, bearded, scraggly character, usually seen riding a rickety bicycle, often with one of his legendary toilet seat guitars strapped across his shoulder. Charlie was harmless; the strangeness of his appearance exceeded only by the gentleness of his spirit. As a bike-bound adolescent in occasionally "Still" Valley, our paths seemed to cross almost daily as we pedaled in opposite directions down Miller Avenue. At an age when I counted irreverence and defiance as my finest personality traits, I always knew enough to acknowledge Charlie with a wave, a "Hey, Charlie," or a doff of the little league cap. Even as an adult, I never failed to pay tribute to the man. In return, I rarely got more than a humbled and mumbled, "Hello." But that was enough.

When I read about Charlie's passing, on the heals of the closing of the Sweetwater and Village Music, I couldn't help but fall into a reflective mood. Mill Valley, still one of the most beautiful places I know, is not the town I grew up in. Of course, it hasn't been for a long time. And that's okay. But Charlie is a little different than Lockwood's Pharmacy, Mosher's Shoes, The Old Mill Bakery, Varney's Hardware and the other venerable institutions of bygone days. If a local drugstore, charming shoe store, or old fashioned bakery were to open in Lytton Square next week, I suspect they'd be welcomed by one and all. But if Charlie Deal suddenly appeared today, I wonder? Would he be embraced? Would he be respected? Is there still a place for the Charlie Deals of the world?

In the end, it doesn't matter. Because there was only one Charlie Deal. Mill Valley, nor any other town for that matter, will ever see his like again. I'm glad I got to wave to him. I wish I'd gotten to wave goodbye.

A Little Perspective, A Lot of Opportunity

A buyer said to me the other day, "It's a shame that now that prices are finally down, interest rates have gone back up." This sent me scurrying for some historical data. The buyer was happy to be reminded that while, on a regional basis, many sellers are more willing than ever to negotiate, 30-year fixed rates are still relatively low, typically below 7%.

A quick snapshot of some historical interest rate climates:
In 1983, the 30-year fixed loan rate was 13.95 percent
In 1987, the rate was 11.36 percent
In 1992, rates dipped below double digits to 9 percent
In 1997, the rate was 8.27 percent
In 2002, the rate was 7.16 percent

As is so often the case, investors willing to go against the grain, to enter a market many are leaving, may be rewarded for their courage down the road.

Just some thoughts for those trying to make sense of a confusing market...