School of Thought

If you aren't raising children in San Francisco, this story might not seem like a big deal. But if you or someone you know has young 'uns in Baghdad by the Bay, then you know that the public school selection process is one of the single most important issues in town.

What's the real estate connection? The school board's decision to grant partial neighborhood preference could well have some impact on property values for homes near the most desirable schools. Of course, if the board had granted full neighborhood preference, the impact would have been huge.

In Marin, schools are a driving force behind property values. In San Francisco, schools are often a driving force behind people moving to Marin. Will the board's decision stem this tide? Time will tell. Did the board's decision only serve to further segregate SF's public school or did they not go far enough? We'd love to hear readers' thoughts (real estate-related or otherwise) on this very divisive issue.

It's Heeeeere!

We've been saying it for a few months. SF and Marin ran, but they couldn't hide. How long will it last, maybe not as long as feared. Read today's Chron article for details.

TICs and Condo Conversion

Another quick one for our City readers. Many people want to know about the rules governing Tenancy In Common (TIC) and condo conversions in San Francisco. Despite the risks associated with them, TICs have become a surprisingly common way for first-time buyers to crack the high-priced SF market. Their increase in popularity has, naturally, resulted in a decrease in the gap between TIC and Condo prices. If you'd like to learn a little about the history of TICs or the implications converting TICs into condominiums, please contact Next Generation Real Estate at 415.717.0766 or NextGeneration@pacunion.com.
In the meantime, two websites offer invaluable information on this subject. In our opinion, no one should purchase a TIC unit without first reading every word of the condo conversion information page at sfgov.org. Perhaps even more important is a thorough reading of Andy Sirkin's website. Mr. Sirkin is a San Francisco attorney and the preeminent authority on TICs. Links to these websites will have a permanent home in the link list on the right side of this page.

Taking the Market's Temperature

Before we get to today's City-centric post, just a quick reminder that we regularly update your favorite real estate blog with helpful info and links. Rather than bug you with an email for every new addition, we encourage you to check back often to see what's new. This week, without telling you, we posted a note about the impact of the Fed rate cut (see post below) and added new links to recycling resources in Marin (see link list to right). Lastly, don't be afraid to leave comments about postings that you found helpful, interesting, or even confusing. Your feedback will help us tailor your favorite real estate blog to your needs.

Now without further ado, some illuminating data on the SF market.

First, for those who don't know (and why would you?), the City is broken up into MLS districts (by numbers) and subdistricts (by letters). For example, the central part of SF is Disctrict 5. Noe Valley is district 5C. Click here to see a map of all City districts and subdistricts.

Second, one way we measure the temperature of a local market is by looking at the percentage of active listings under contract. In other words, how many listings have sold, but not yet closed? Generally speaking, when 35% or more of active listings are under contract, we consider this a seller's market. (This was widely experienced over the past five years.) When 25%-35% of active listings are under contract, we consider this a balanced market. When less than 25% of active listings are under contract, buyers are in the driver's seat.

On Friday, September 22, 2007, here's what the market looked like:

District 1 (Northwest) - 27% under contract

District 2 (Central West) - 32%

District 3 (Southwest) - 21%

District 4 (Twin Peaks West) - 29%

District 5 (Central) - 33%

District 6 (Central North) - 35%

District 7 (North) - 32%

Distrcit 8 (Northeast) - 32%

District 9 (Central East) - 29%

District 10 (Southeast) - 21%

Citywide, active listings spend an average of 48 days on the market prior to selling.

(Statistics include all single family homes, condos, lofts, and TICs. Multi-unit listings were not included.)

We will track this data over time so that regular readers can get a sense of which way the market is moving. Remember, markets are seasonal. Expect Decmeber to be cooler (read: more buyer-friendly) than September.

Comments welcome...