Welcome Home

We managed to take a brief summer respite at Stinson Beach. Then we came back to this. Welcome home, indeed!

REO Speedwagon

Everyone seems to be interested in forclosures these days. Real Estate Owned (REO) listings are everywhere and everyone wants to cash in. Not surprisingly, it's not as easy to get into this market as it might appear. This article in today's SF Chron spells out some of the pitfalls.

For Better or Worse

After a blogging sabbatical, we're back with an interesting article from today's SF Chron.

One of the reasons it's so difficult to tell where the market is going right now is that lenders don't seem certain what's in their best interest. Many are willing to work with struggling homeowners to keep them in their homes. Others "are really convinced that a repayment or modification is not in their best interest; that a foreclosure may be a better thing."

Stay tuned...

Golden Handcuffs

Today's Prop 13 article in the SF Chron is not to be missed. It's easy to forget the history of this proposition or to underestimate its signifcance. When you read the aritcle, you'll realize or remember that Prop 13 changed not only the way we pay property tax, but also the way Californian's view taxes and government in general. Moreover, ask any veteran educator in the state and they'll tell you that no single event in California history has had more impact on public (and by extension, private) education than the passage or Prop 13.

Upside down

Sales were up in April! The recovery is on! Be the first to buy in to a down market and make a fortune in real estate speculation! Uhm...not so fast.

Actually, we think this is a good time to buy, but don't make too much of the recent month-over-month increase in sales. The recovery may be starting, but it won't be measured month-by-month. We suggest tracking real estate investments year-over-year. Remember, the word is "investment," not "speculation."

If you decide to wade into these still-troubled waters, call us. There are bargains to be found out there, like no other time in the past seven years. We're tracking properties that we think have good investment potential. But you have to be selective. And patient.

"Off to the Principal's Office You Go"

Whether you're genuinely interested in school performance records or just looking for a way to waste time at work, you're bound to enjoy this handy tool. Wondering about your kid's school or maybe about the district you're thinking of moving to? Now you can find out the rate of school suspensions (and the reasons!) for every public school in California. Happy snooping.

Bottom Feeding?

We get asked almost daily whether the market has hit bottom. No one knows for sure, but we've been saying that, barring a major change in mortgage rates or an economic sea change (election year, anyone?), we think our feet will touch the bottom, so to speak, sometime between now and Q4, 2008. Well, one economist thinks we've hit the bottom already. Check out this WSJ article for a very interesting take on the market. Whether he's right, we cannot say for sure, but we definitely agree with his secondary point: the rebound will be slower (and hopefully more sustainable) than the boom.

Talkin' 'bout Mill Valley

A former client and friend sent this our way. We couldn't resist linking to it. For those clients who always look at us funny when we talk about how much things have changed in Marin, here's proof.

Duration, Duration, Duration

A belated post here. Some of you probably saw Kathleen Pender's piece in the Chron last week. We second just about everything she writes in there. Tons of good information. First time home buyers, in particular, would be wise to read and remember.

Getting Foreclosure

This article says it all about the state's real estate market. In short, we've never seen anything like this before. Silver lining? Marin and San Francisco have the lowest and third lowest rates of foreclosure of all California counties. Opportunity? As we've been saying for a while, Sonoma County seems like a market that went from overvalued to undervalued very quickly. What's next? Our best guess is another few quarters of scary statistics before a blessedly slow and and steady recovery. We suspect that those who have the moxie to buy in 2008 will eventually be very glad they did. Stay tuned...

Fireside Chat

As a Mill Valley native, I am often asked by clients, Marin newcomers, or visitors from SF about the rundown, old, white brick building at the doorstep of my hometown. Many people remember the Fireside Motel, which sat behind the white brick building and welcomed people exiting Highway 101, headed toward Stinson Beach or Muir Woods. Still others once enjoyed a cold beer at the decidedly funky El Rebozo, the last business to occupy the white brick building. (Both establishments had reputations for allowing a little more fun that the local laws allowed.) These establishments were part of the Southern Marin landscape for a long time. Old timers might also remember The Brothers Tavern, Varney's Hardware, La Veranda, Dowd's Bard, and the Unknown Museum in the same breath. But I learned something new about one of Mill Valley's landmarks in this SF Chron article. If you've ever driven into Mill Valley and wondered about that rundown old building on the side of the road, you might enjoy the read.

Varney's Hardware closed in 1988

The fire that destroyed Dowd's and La Veranda in 1984

An "exhibit" at the unknown museum

Feeling So Loan-ly

Remember the heralded economic stimulus package that was supposed to bring relief to the lending markets and increased conforming loan limits? Well, it hasn't quite worked as planned. Check out this article from the SF Chronicle. It spells out what borrowers are facing these days. Bottom line? Loans are still being made, but without high income, great credit, and a big down payment, many borrowers are finding the pickin's awfully slim.

Property Tax Reductions

Fortunately, most of our clients, or more accurately, their properties, in Marin and San Francisco have weathered the real estate downturn well. In other areas, however, people who bought in recent years may find that their property has declined in value. Sometimes significantly. Oddly enough, when these folks get their property tax bill, they usually find that the assessed value of their home has not been reduced in kind. Fortunately, there is a rememdy. This helpful SF Chronicle article explains how to get a temporary reduction in the assessed value of your property. Share this with anyone you know who ought to take advantage of this opportunity.

TIC-Talk

Another SF-centric post (sorry, Marinites). This time we focus on TICs; that mysterious property type that's not quite condo, not quite co-op, and completely confusing. (In truth TICs, or something like them, are popping up in other areas as well, but they are still primarily an esseff phenomenon.) This article does a good job of spelling out the facts, history, and controversy surrounding TICs.

One important corrective comment: very few newly forming TIC groups have a single loan any more. The vast majority now have fractional financing, a fact the article doesn't address until well "below the fold," and one that has, in our opinion, assured the long term viability of TIC ownership. In this sense, the New York co-op analogy isn't far off. In most places, buyers (and lenders) have understandable hesitation when it comes to co-ops. In New York, they exist right along side condos as a perfectly normal form of home ownership. We suspect that in another three to five years, TICs will have reached similar status in SF, if they haven't already. We also think we know what else needs to happen to speed this process, but that's a longer discussion. (Call for details!)

If you're considering TIC ownership, please call us. We like TICs . Heck, we own one! We just want our clients to have all the information before they buy.

For even more TIC talk, check out the link list at the right of the page. You'll find links to Andy Sirkin's (TIC guru and attorney) website, as well as to the SF.gov condo conversion page. Enjoy.

Now that's an article!

We've complained a few times in this space about newspaper articles that don't tell the whole story or try to tell the whole story based on half the information. We understand. They have to sell papers. And histrionics and hyperbole sell papers.
Since we've been critical in the past, we thought we ought to point out an article that deserves praise. James Temple's piece in the Sunday Chron did a terrific job of digging deep into a specific market; namely newer construction in South Beach/Soma/Rincon Hill. Temple is the new real estate writer at the Chronicle and, despite a couple of hiccups that we're choosing to blame on the editors, he does a consistently good job. This article acknowledges that the dynamics of this market are unique to the market itself; not determined by forces in Washington, Wall Street, or Sacramento. Moreover, Temple does a great job of informing interested readers about what's really going on in a part of the City that captured the interest of many local residents.
Give it a read. Whether you're curious to see who's moving into this area or what the future hold for their home values, we think you'll get a good look.