The Barbell Effect

In the private school world, financial aid administrators often refer to the "barbell effect." The term was coined to explain what happens when very high tuition and large financial aid awards combine to create a school community with a bunch of wealthy families supporting a bunch of economically disadvantaged families in the name of diversity. Meanwhile, middle income families who can neither afford the tuition nor qualify for financial awards are largely squeezed out.

For the purposes of discussion, we wonder "aloud" whether something similar could be happening in the world of real estate. To wit...today's blurb on sfgate.com mentions that the upper end of the SF market is up recently and down only slightly year-over-year, while the lower and of the market has fallen by better than 9%. Put another way, if you've got a lot of money to begin with, your recent real estate investment has been relatively sound. Meanwhile, if you entered the bottom of the market a year ago, your investment has under-performed.

Okay. Admittedly, the private school analogy is a reach. But we wonder nevertheless why the "value" end of the market doesn't seem to be much of a value?

Hold Your Breath

Check out this article for the latest news on Marin homeowners who are underwater. More than you thought? Fewer? Share your thoughts....

Listings Lately?

And now for the self-serving portion of our blog...Here are a few of the properties we've listed or sold lately.

20 Rowley Circle
2169 Green Street #3
www.1383Masonic.com
9 Via Vandyke (representing buyer)
7 Castle Rock (representing buyer)

The End Is Near (Again)

Check out the latest update from the Marin IJ on Marin foreclosure activity. We particularly enjoyed the quote from a competing broker, "This may be the point where we look back and say it's starting to go in another direction." If we had a loan modification for every time we'd read that, we'd be going in another direction by now. Not that we disagree with him, mind you. It's just that we think market shifts are like potholes; you never see them until they're in the rear view mirror (and usually your tire's blown out by then).

Foreclosure Database

Because of the seemingly never-ending fascination with distress sales, we thought we'd again offer up the link to the Marin County foreclosure database.

As always, we add the caveat that many homes that are in the foreclosure process, especially those that have received a Notice of Default, may never be offered for sale. In some cases, homeowners have "deliberately" gone into default as part of a strategy to achieve a loan modification.

More advice...be cautious when pursuing foreclosures. Auctions on the court house steps are the first place that novices stumble. But even when purchasing through an agent, disclosures are limited and contracts tend to heavily favor the bank's interests. Do your risk/reward calculations carefully. And, as ever, please buy and sell real estate responsibly. We're always here to help.

Safety First

For our many Mill Valley-centric clients, friends, and readers (and with apologies to those that aren't), here's a worthwhile read about Mill Valley's approach to disaster preparedness.